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如是投-2019.06.10

2019-06-10來源:網上中期

  中國國際期貨山東分公司聯系電話:13335005320  QQ(微信同號):702167348。

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  “如是投——期貨價格跟蹤監測系統”顯示,今日在系統監測的35個品種中,上漲12,下跌20個,震蕩3。上漲品種占34.3%,下跌57.1%,震蕩8.6%。周五(6月10日),國內期市收盤多數飄紅。黑色系集體上漲;有色金屬齊漲;能化品漲幅居前;農產品分化,油脂油料領跌,早稻漲停,棉紗、白糖上行。

  焦鋼市場持續博弈中,焦炭第四輪價格提漲下游多暫未接受,個別鋼廠用戶有成交,部分焦企暫未跟隨提漲。陜西及山西個別地區焦企生產受環保擾動,目前看限產要求較為嚴格部分焦企長協鋼廠供應難以完成,當地焦炭供應偏緊張。焦企庫存維持低位水平,鋼廠焦炭庫存小幅回升,有河北地區鋼廠表示,6月份前幾日焦炭到廠車輛明顯增加,部分貿易商發貨量突增,導致其不得不控制車輛進廠。有焦企人士考慮到季節性因素對鋼材需求有一定影響,對月底以及7月市場信心不足,較為關注后期環保政策。

  焦煤方面,個別地區焦企由于環保限產,原料煤日耗降低,以少量補庫為主。焦煤市場基本維穩運行,焦炭市場漲跌博弈加劇,煉焦煤價格上漲乏力。近期煤礦發生幾起安全事故,市場對安全檢查趨嚴預期有所升溫。

  根據之前1月30日左右淡水河谷發布的新聞稿可以看到,淡水河谷向巴西能源和環境部提出關閉10座上游尾礦壩的申請,并得到了批準。淡水河谷將投資50億雷亞爾關停這些尾礦壩,整個關停過程可能持續1-3年的時間。按照初步的測算,該計劃或將影響年產量4000萬噸鐵礦石,其中包括1100萬噸球團礦。同時Vale稱將增加其他地區鐵礦石產量,彌補潰壩礦區停產影響。

  端午節假期期間,沙特表示OPEC接近就延長減產協議至6月以后達成一致,國際油價連續兩個交易日大漲,提振上海原油止跌大幅反彈。上周PTA市場震蕩下跌,現貨緊張,基差維持在高位,市場成交氛圍一般。在端午假期期間,國際油價反彈上漲,成本端PX價格一改下跌走勢緊跟反彈,且周末長絲放量明顯,但終端紡織企業存放假停產現象,市場并未出現明顯好轉,采購仍略顯謹慎。

  摩根大通預計金價在第四季度會升至1405美元/盎司,到2020年底會升至1480美元/盎司。

  近期受美豆新作種植進度和產區天氣炒作,以及國內CPI上漲導致大宗商品普漲的推動,油脂出現了一波反彈。從基本面情況來看,國內油脂總庫存和棕櫚油產地庫存都處于低位,具有短期上漲的基礎。但是進入6、7月份以后,壓力將迅速增加。

  文華商品指數開盤149.78、最高150.34、最低149.66、收盤150.24。K線收略帶上下影線的中陽線。持倉量變化不大,成交量大幅回落。K線短期壓力150.00一線,短期看K線與均線系統偏離較大不過均線系統成空頭排列狀態。K線突破前期低點支撐并且均線系統整體偏弱。商品后期操作建議逢高做空為主,具體根據如是投——期貨價格跟蹤監測系統進行分析。

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