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中期嘉盈服務計劃--微量策略資訊20190531

2019-06-05來源:網上中期

進入5月鐵礦石、焦炭主力合約紛紛大漲,表現強勢,螺紋鋼主力合約卻震蕩徘回。當前宏觀環境下行壓力不減,螺紋鋼當前供給相對寬松,需求或因基建和地產有所收縮。

成本端:鐵礦石、焦炭

 淡水河谷潰壩事故對鐵礦供給的影響仍在持續,巴西礦業部預期2019年巴西的鐵礦石產量將減少10%,且2020年的復產形勢仍不明朗,或致2019年的供需缺口超出市場預期,同時港口鐵礦石庫存繼續下降,鐵礦石價格大幅上漲;獨立焦化廠焦炭庫存略有下降,但仍高于去年同期水平。考慮到焦炭現貨已完成第二輪提價,焦炭港口庫存維持高位,預計焦炭價格將維持震蕩。

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供給端:產能利用率上升

 全國高爐產能利用率上升,雖然鐵礦價格上漲壓縮鋼廠利潤,但目前鋼廠未做反映。本周163家鋼廠高爐開工率為71.13%,低于去年同期水平0.69%;產能利用率為79.08%,比上期上升0.53%;鋼廠盈利率82.82%,環比上升0.61%。螺紋鋼產量環比增加3.16萬噸。

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需求端:采購偏謹慎

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當前下游采購謹慎,社會庫存去化放緩。本周五大品種社會庫存周環比減 40.72 萬噸,同比去年少減 36.86 萬噸。其中鋼廠庫存204.44 萬噸,較前值下降10.40萬噸;社會庫存569.83萬噸,較前值下降27.86萬噸。

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當前基建和地產對螺紋的支撐相對減弱。

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總結來說,當前經濟下行壓力猶在,需求方面旺季過后基建和地產對螺紋的支撐相對減弱,需求逐步偏謹慎;供給方面盡管當前鐵礦、焦炭等原料大漲,鋼廠依然生產熱情不減,供給上相對寬松


資訊來源:

微量網:國內首家以量化投資、智能投顧為核心的期貨策略平臺。

創始人馮永昌,中國期貨業協會互聯網金融委員會顧問委員,上海期貨交易所博士后企業導師,珠海橫琴金融     產業園特別顧問。

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